SportsLine simulated the 2020 Daytona 500 10,000 times and locked in surprising picks

NASCAR's Super Bowl is set for Sunday afternoon at 2:30 p.m. ET, as 40 of the sport's fastest drivers will fill 2020 Daytona 500 field in an event also known as the Great American Race. Navigating 200 laps around the famed 2.5-mile Daytona International Speedway oval tests even the best racers' skill and endurance, as well as their cars. Daytona sometimes produces a surprise winner -- like Austin Dillon in 2018 and Trevor Bayne in 2011.

Joey Logano, who finished fourth last year at Daytona and won the 2015 race, is the co-favorite in the 2020 Daytona 500 odds at 10-1, joined by 2016 champion Denny Hamlin. Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick are close behind at 13-1. Before making any 2020 Daytona 500 picks, be sure to check out the NASCAR predictions and full projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model crushed its NASCAR picks last year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers at the Go Bowling at The Glen.

Additionally, it called Martin Truex Jr. to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma. Anybody who has followed its picks has seen huge returns. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Daytona 2020 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2020 Daytona 500 predictions

For the 2020 Daytona 500, the model is high on Kurt Busch at 18-1 Daytona 500 odds. The 20-year Cup Series veteran has won 31 times in his storied career -- including capturing the 2017 Daytona 500. Busch's 2017 victory in the Great American Race was notable in that he led only one lap in that race -- the final one.

Busch is coming off a season that saw him win the Quaker State 400 race at Kentucky Speedway as part of a campaign that also included six top-5 finishes and 18 top-10s. Busch has won a race in each of the past six seasons, and can be counted on to navigate his Chip Ganassi Racing Chevy to the front of the 2.5-mile Daytona International Speedway this weekend. The model has factored all of that in, and that's why it recommends you consider Busch for your 2020 Daytona 500 picks.

And a massive shocker: Joey Logano, the Vegas co-favorite at 10-1, doesn't even crack the top three. There are far better values in a loaded 2020 Daytona 500 lineup.

After winning his first title in 2018, Logano dropped to fifth in the standings in 2019 after spending most of the first half leading the points race. Eleven finishes outside the top 10 in the final 21 races of the season led to the precipitous drop, including a 25th place finish at Daytona in July after starting on the pole. Logano won the 2015 Daytona 500 and has finished in the top six at the Great American Race in his four starts since, but he's only led 30 laps collectively during that time.

How to make NASCAR at Daytona picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Daytona 500 2020? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 Daytona 500 leaderboard, all from the model that crushed its NASCAR picks last season.

2020 Daytona 500 odds

Joey Logano 10-1

Denny Hamlin 10-1

Chase Elliott 13-1

Kyle Busch 13-1

Brad Keselowski 13-1

Kevin Harvick 13-1

Martin Truex Jr. 16-1

Ryan Blaney 16-1

Kurt Busch 18-1

Clint Bowyer 20-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1

Jimmie Johnson 22-1

William Byron 22-1

Alex Bowman 22-1

Aric Almirola 22-1

Erik Jones 22-1

Kyle Larson 25-1

Matt DiBenedetto 32-1

Austin Dillon 32-1

Christopher Bell 42-1

Ryan Newman 42-1

Cole Custer 50-1

Tyler Reddick 50-1

Paul Menard 50-1

Ross Chastain 65-1

Daniel Hemric 70-1

Darrell Wallace Jr. 70-1

Ryan Preece 70-1

Chris Buescher 75-1

John Hunter Nemechek 75-1

Michael McDowell 75-1

David Ragan 110-1

Ty Dillon 110-1

JJ Yeley 120-1

Quin Houff 120-1

B.J. Mcleod 140-1

Brendan Gaughan 140-1

Matt Tifft 140-1

Cody Ware 160-1

Garrett Smithley 160-1

Joey Gase 160-1

Parker Kligerman 160-1

Timmy Hill 160-1

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